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Banca Naţională a României
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Useful Links
Inflation Reports
Monetary Policy
Direct Inflation Targeting
Inflation Reports
Methodological Notes
Methodological Notes Included in Inflation Reports
2022
November
Box 1. External influences on the inflation rate in Romania – several coordinates
Box 2. Price adjustment mechanisms amid the energy shock
August
Box 1. Design of European energy markets
Box 2. An assessment of potential GDP for Romania in the pandemic context
Box 3. Risk scenario for the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the domestic
May
Box. Current assessments of the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Romanian economy
February
Box 1. Inflation resurgence – a global phenomenon
Box 2. Assessing the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts on the December 2021 annual CPI inflation rate
Box 3. The impact of higher utility costs on the number of employees
2021
November
The rise in energy prices: its impact on inflation rate and economic activity
August
Box 1. External inflation – recent developments and outlook
May
Box 1: Price rigidity in Romania: evidence based on microeconomic data
2020
November
Box: The economic impact of the first measures adopted to flatten the epidemic curve
August
Labour market adjustments. Where do short-time work schemes fit in?
Indicators monitoring economic activity amid the COVID-19 pandemic
Sensitivity scenario on the public health crisis
February
Assessment of forecast errors for the December 2019 annual CPI inflation rate
2019
November
The automotive sector – incidental disruptions and structural metamorphosis
May
Recent developments in and the outlook for global economic activity
February
Recent developments in investment: several coordinates
Assessment of forecast errors for the December 2018 annual CPI inflation rate
2018
November
Evidence on job creation and destruction in Romania
August
Price-cost margins in the real sector
Sensitivity scenario on oil price developments
May
Labour productivity and the business cycle in Romania
Re-assessing output gap following the revision of the historical GDP series
February
Food price dynamics in 2017 Q4
Sources of trade deficit in food products
Assessment of forecast errors for the December 2017 annual CPI inflation
2017
November
The pass-through of industrial producer prices on the domestic market to consumer prices
Wage-productivity relationship and implications for inflation
Could the economically inactive population be a solution for easing labour market conditions?
The monetary policy stances of the major central banks and of those in the region
Corroborative evidence on the degree of economy overheating
August
Labour market in Romania in the digitisation era
May
Price competitiveness of main industrial groupings and sub‑sectors
The relationship between economic activity and inflation
February
Assessment of forecast errors for the December 2016 annual CPI inflation
2016
August
The relevance of external factors to domestic inflation dynamics
Revisions of inflation projections of some central banks
The impact of the Brexit referendum result on macroeconomic developments in Romania
May
Total factor productivity (TFP) from a macro- and a microeconomic perspective
Monetary Policy and exogeneous shocks to inflation
February
Structural factors driving the correction of the external imbalance
The demonstration effect – to what extent do public sector wage increases influence wage dynamics in industry?
Assessment of forecast errors for the December 2015 annual CPI inflation
2015
August
A perspective on structural unemployment in Romania
May
The increase in the minimum gross wage – effects on the labour market
February
Oil prices – their impact on inflation and economic activity
Archive 2002-2013
August 2013
The impact of the carry-over effects on average annual real GDP growth rate
February 2013
Reassessment of potential GDP dynamics and GDP deviation
November 2012
Incorporation of an effective external demand measure, i.e. effective EU GDP, into the model
November 2011
The impact of base effects on the annual inflation rate
May 2011
The assessment of the impact of a shock in global food prices on domestic macroeconomic variables
August 2010
Interest rate transmission mechanism
May 2010
Quantitative assessment of the influence exerted by some unfavourable exogenous shocks
November 2008
Fiscal projections and the macroeconomic forecast
The financial crisis and the real economy
Building the uncertainty interval associated with the baseline scenario inflation forecast
August 2008
The importance of inflation expectations
Quantitative assessment of the risk of higher whole-economy average wage
November 2007
Recent developments in the main commodity markets
August 2007
Adjustment of GDP growth in 2007 Q1 by the impact of the change in legislation on VAT collection
February 2007
Comparing the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices and national consumer price index
General issues regarding the impact of Romania’s accession to the European Union on consumer food prices
November 2006
Growth rate of potential GDP
August 2006
Operational framework of the NBR monetary policy
November 2005
Wealth and balance sheet effects of exchange rate
August 2005
Core inflation
Potential GDP and output gap
Semester II 2002
Impact of exchange rate on inflation rate