Inflation Projection and the Associated
Uncertainty Interval
| Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
Target | | 2.5 | | | | 2.5 | | | | 2.5 | |
Actual/ Projected**(%) | 8.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
constant taxes* | 8.1 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
Uncertainty Interval (%) | - | - | - | ±0.5 | ±0.9 | ±1.4 | ±2.0 | ±2.3 | ±2.5 | ±2.6 | ±2.7 |
* Excluding the first round impact of the changes in the VAT rate, excise duties and some non-tax fees and charges
** end of period
Source: NIS, NBR calculations
Adjusted CORE2
| Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
Actual/Projected* | | | | | | | | | | | |
Adjusted CORE2 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
Adj. CORE2 excl. VAT effect** | 11.1 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
* End of period
** Adjusted CORE2 inflation rate excluding the VAT first round effect
Source: NIS, NBR calculations
Energy Inflation Rate
| Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
Actual/ Projected* (%) | -2.0 | -3.2 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
* End of period
Source: NIS, NBR calculations
Administered prices inflation, excluding electricity and natural gas
| Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
Actual/ Projected* (%) | 15.6 | 14.3 | 16.3 | 15.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
* End of period
Source: NIS, NBR calculations
Vegetable, Fruit and Egg Prices
| Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
Actual/ Projected* (%) | 9.4 | 6.7 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 8.2 |
* End of period
Source: NIS, NBR calculations
GDP Deviation
| Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
Estimated/ Projected(%) | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Source: NBR calculations