Balance of payments and external debt – November 2017
15.01.2018
In January - November 2017, the balance-of-payments current account posted a deficit of EUR 5,581 million, compared with EUR 2,896 million in January – November 2016; the deficit on trade in goods and that on primary income widened by EUR 2,317 million and EUR 342 million respectively, the surplus on secondary income contracted by EUR 176 million, while the surplus on services increased by EUR 150 million.
Balance of payments current account (EUR million)
| | January - November 2016p | January - November 2017p |
|---|
| CREDIT | DEBIT | BALANCE | CREDIT | DEBIT | BALANCE |
|---|
| CURRENT ACCOUNT (A+B+C) | 71,806 | 74,702 | -2,896 | 78,625 | 84,206 | -5,581 |
|---|
| A. Goods and services | 64,502 | 65,584 | -1,082 | 71,760 | 75,009 | -3,249 |
|---|
| a. Goods | 48,226 | 56,364 | -8,138 | 53,002 | 63,457 | -10,455 |
|---|
| b. Services | 16,276 | 9,220 | 7,056 | 18,758 | 11,552 | 7,206 |
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| - manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others | 2,421 | 181 | 2,240 | 2,666 | 168 | 2,498 |
|---|
| - transport | 5,072 | 1,725 | 3,347 | 5,602 | 2,266 | 3,336 |
|---|
| - tourism-travel | 1,406 | 1,846 | -440 | 2,084 | 2,917 | -833 |
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| - other | 7,377 | 5,468 | 1,909 | 8,406 | 6,201 | 2,205 |
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| B. Primary income | 2,639 | 6,784 | -4,145 | 3,087 | 7,574 | -4,487 |
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| C. Secondary income | 4,665 | 2,334 | 2,331 | 3,778 | 1,623 | 2,155 |
|---|
p - provisional data
Non-residents' direct investment in Romania totalled EUR 4,377 million (compared with EUR 3,651 million in January – November 2016), of which equity (including estimated net reinvestment of earnings) amounted to EUR 3,502 million and intercompany lending recorded a net value of EUR 875 million.
In January – November 2017, total external debt increased by EUR 1,483 million, of which:
- Long-term external debt at end-November 2017 stood at EUR 69,354 million (73.5 percent of total external debt), down 0.4 percent from end-2016;
- Short-term external debt at end-November 2017 amounted to EUR 25,039 million (26.5 percent of total external debt), up 7.6 percent against end-2016.
Romania’s external debt and external debt service
| | External debt | External debt service, 11M 2017p |
|---|
| End-2016p | End-November 2017p |
|---|
| I. Long-term external debt | 69,645 | 69,354 | 15,141 |
|---|
| I.1. Public debt | 32,299 | 33,319 | 4,568 |
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| I.1.1. Direct public debt | 31,752 | 32,868 | 4,479 |
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| I.1.2. Publicly guaranteed debt | 547 | 451 | 89 |
|---|
I.2. Non-publicly guaranteed debt,
of which: | 36,091 | 34,857 | 10,542 |
|---|
| 1.2.1. Long-term deposits of non-residents | 3,637 | 3,055 | 1,277 |
|---|
I.3. Debt of the monetary authority,
of which: | 1,255 | 1,178 | 31 |
|---|
| I.3.1. Allocation of SDRs | 1,255 | 1,178 | 31 |
|---|
| II. Short-term external debt | 23,265 | 25,039 | 46,761e |
|---|
| Total external debt (I+II) | 92,910 | 94,393 | 61,902 |
|---|
e - estimates
p - provisional data
Long-term external debt service ratio ran at 21.1 percent in January – November 2017 against 30.0 percent in 2016. At end-November 2017, goods and services import cover stood at 5.4 months, as compared to 6.3 months at end-2016.
At end-November 2017, the ratio of the National Bank of Romania’s foreign exchange reserves to short-term external debt by remaining maturity came in at 84.1 percent, against 90.5 percent at end-2016.
Methodological Notes
- Balance of payments data are updated on a monthly basis. Data for the current period together with the revised data for the base period are available under Data sets; historical monthly and quarterly data back to 2005 are available in the Interactive database.
- The international standard framework for statistics on the transactions and positions between an economy and the rest of the world is set forth in the sixth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The BPM6 methodology has been transposed into the EU legislation based on Commission Regulation (EU) No 555/2012 on Community statistics concerning balance of payments, international trade in services and foreign direct investment, as regards the update of data requirements and definitions. For details on the main methodological changes and data comparability, see Implementarea noilor standarde metodologice în statisticile elaborate de BNR (Romanian only) or Implementing the new Balance of Payments Manual.
- In order to analyse current account data, the following aspects should be considered:
- 3.1. Goods (on a BOP basis): Source: National Institute of Statistics (NIS) – International Trade of Goods. Imports FOB are calculated by the NBR based on the CIF/FOB conversion factor of 1.0430 set by the NIS. The balance of payments principle consists in entering goods based on the “change in economic ownership” criterion (goods acquired by residents are included, irrespective of whether the goods cross the country border or not), while in international trade statistics goods are recorded based on the “cross-border” criterion (goods are recorded when crossing the border, irrespective of whether they belong to residents or not). In order to ensure compliance with the “change in economic ownership” principle, the NIS data are adjusted by the NBR, so that the values of exports and imports of goods in the BOP statistics are different from those in international trade statistics. The main difference between the two types of statistics comes from manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others which, according to BPM6, has been reclassified from Goods to Services and the data source has been changed from International Trade in Goods to the Quarterly Survey on international trade in services conducted by the NBR;
- 3.2. Services: Source: Quarterly Survey on International Trade in Services;
- 3.3. Primary income: includes compensation of employees, investment income (direct investment, portfolio investment, other investment) and other primary income (taxes, subsidies);
- 3.4. Secondary income: includes current private transfers and transfers of the general government.
- Foreign direct investment: The permanent debt between affiliated financial intermediaries (banks, NBFIs) is not treated as direct investment, but recorded under financial account/other investment.
- The balance of external public debt is cash-based (excluding unmatured accrued interest). External direct public debt includes external loans taken directly by the Ministry of Public Finance and local governments in compliance with the legislation on public debt, including the financial instruments acquired by non-residents – calculated at market value. External publicly guaranteed debt includes external loans guaranteed by the Ministry of Public Finance and local governments in compliance with the legislation on public debt. According to BPM6, the allocation of SDRs (item I.3.1 in the table) is included in the long-term external debt.
- Long-term external debt service ratio is calculated as a ratio of long-term external debt service to exports of goods and services.
- Import cover is calculated as a ratio of the international reserves (foreign exchange + gold) at the end of period to average monthly imports of goods and services for the period under review.
- Short-term external debt by remaining maturity refers to the short-term external debt outstanding at the end of period plus the payments related to long-term external debt due in the following 12 months.