In January – November 2021 p, the balance-of-payments current account
posted a deficit of EUR 15,313 million, compared with EUR 9,753 million in the same year-earlier period. The breakdown shows that the deficits on trade in goods and on primary income widened by EUR 3,895 million and EUR 784 million, respectively; the surplus on secondary income and that on services decreased by EUR 515 million and EUR 366 million, respectively.
Balance of payments current account (EUR million)
| | January - November 2020p | January - November 2021p |
|---|
| CREDIT | DEBIT | BALANCE | CREDIT | DEBIT | BALANCE |
|---|
| CURRENT ACCOUNT (A+B+C) | 84,987 | 94,740 | -9,753 | 99,360 | 114,673 | -15,313 |
|---|
| A. Goods and services | 74,308 | 82,556 | -8,248 | 88,185 | 100,694 | -12,509 |
|---|
| a. Goods | 52,911 | 69,788 | -16,877 | 64,056 | 84,828 | -20,772 |
|---|
| b. Services | 21,397 | 12,768 | 8,629 | 24,129 | 15,866 | 8,263 |
|---|
| - manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others | 2,260 | 122 | 2,138 | 2,215 | 140 | 2,075 |
|---|
| - transport | 6,115 | 2,393 | 3,722 | 6,816 | 2,979 | 3,837 |
|---|
| - tourism-travel | 1,156 | 2,505 | -1,349 | 2,275 | 3,928 | -1,653 |
|---|
| - other | 11,866 | 7,748 | 4,118 | 12,823 | 8,819 | 4,004 |
|---|
| B. Primary income | 5,618 | 8,625 | -3,007 | 6,087 | 9,878 | -3,791 |
|---|
| C. Secondary income | 5,061 | 3,559 | 1,502 | 5,088 | 4,101 | 987 |
|---|
p - provisional data
Non-residents' direct investment in Romaniae
totalled EUR 6,866 million (compared with EUR 2,397 million in January – November 2020), of which equity (including the estimated net reinvestment of earnings) and intercompany lending recorded net values of EUR 5,499 million and EUR 1,367 million, respectively.
In January – November 2021, total external debt increased by EUR 6,430 million, of which:
- long-term external debt at end-November 2021 ran at EUR 96,501 million (72.4 percent of total external debt), up 3.2 percent against end-2020;
- short-term external debt at end-November 2021 amounted to EUR 36,736 million (27.6 percent of total external debt), up 10.4 percent from end-2020.
Romania’s external debt and external debt service
| | External debt | External debt service, 11M 2021p |
|---|
| End-2020p | End-November 2021p |
|---|
| I. Long-term external debt | 93,541 | 96,501 | 14,055 |
|---|
| I.1. Public debt | 57,533 | 57,794 | 3,265 |
|---|
| I.1.1. Direct public debt | 57,309 | 57,619 | 3,214 |
|---|
| I.1.2. Publicly guaranteed debt | 224 | 175 | 51 |
|---|
I.2. Non-publicly guaranteed debt,
of which: | 34,848 | 35,336 | 10,789 |
|---|
| 1.2.1. Long-term deposits of non-residents | 144 | 343 | 34 |
|---|
I.3. Debt of the monetary authority,
of which: | 1,160 | 3,371 | 1 |
|---|
| I.3.1. Allocation of SDRs | 1,160 | 3,371 | 1 |
|---|
| II. Short-term external debt | 33,266 | 36,736e | 62,991e |
|---|
| Total external debt (I+II) | 126,807 | 133,237 | 77,046 |
|---|
e - estimates
p - provisional data
* The net flows (difference between drawings and reimbursements) of the government securities issued by the Ministry of Finance into the long-term public debt worth EUR 4,486 million were offset by the decrease in government securities’ prices totalling EUR 4,545 million.
** Debt of the monetary authority has increased as a result of the entry into force of a new general allocation of SDRs by the IMF, credited to all IMF member countries in proportion to their existing quotas in the Fund, the allocation for Romania amounting to SDR 1,736 million (equivalent to about EUR 2,100 million).
Long-term external debt service ratio ran at 15.9 percent in January – November 2021 against 20.7 percent in 2020. At end-November 2021, goods and services import cover stood at 4.9 months, as compared to 5.6 months at end-2020.
At end-November 2021, the ratio of the National Bank of Romania’s foreign exchange reserves to short-term external debt by remaining maturity came in at 82.3 percent, against 90.3 percent at end-2020.
Methodological Notes
- Data are updated on a monthly basis. Data for the current period together with the revised data for the base period are available under Data sets; historical monthly and quarterly data going back to 2005 are available in the Interactive database.
- Data from the NBR’s statistical surveys on International Trade in Services and Foreign Direct Investment may be affected by the impact of the pandemic, which, in statistical terms, consisted in the reduction of the reporting samples and the ensuing expansion of internal estimates.
- The international methodological standard on balance of payments compilation is ensured by the IMF’s sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The BPM6 methodology has been transposed into the EU legislation based on Commission Regulation (EU) No 555/2012 on Community statistics concerning balance of payments, international trade in services and foreign direct investment, as regards the update of data requirements and definitions.
- In order to analyse current account data, the following aspects should be considered:
- 4.1. Goods (on a BOP basis): Source: National Institute of Statistics – International Trade of Goods. Imports FOB are calculated by the NBR based on the CIF/FOB conversion factor set by the NIS. The balance of payments principle consists in entering goods based on the “change in economic ownership” criterion (goods acquired by residents are included, irrespective of whether the goods cross the country border or not), while in international trade statistics goods are recorded based on the “cross-border” criterion (goods are recorded when crossing the border, irrespective of whether they belong to residents or not). In order to ensure compliance with the “change in economic ownership” criterion, the NIS data are adjusted by the NBR, therefore the values of exports and imports of goods in the BOP statistics are different from those in the statistics on the international trade of goods;
- 4.2. Services: Source: Quarterly Survey on International Trade in Services;
- 4.3. Primary income: includes compensation of employees, investment income (direct investment, portfolio investment, other investment) and other primary income (taxes, subsidies);
- 4.4. Secondary income: includes current private transfers and transfers of the general government.
- Foreign direct investment: The permanent debt between affiliated financial intermediaries (banks, NBFIs) is not treated as direct investment, but recorded under financial account/other investment.
- External debt includes the following debt financial instruments: currency and deposits, loans, debt securities, trade credit and advances, liabilities from insurance, pension, and standardised guarantee schemes, SDR allocations and other liabilities (according to the IMF’s External Debt Statistics Guide for Compilers and Users, 2014).
- External direct public debt includes external loans taken directly by the Ministry of Finance and local governments, in compliance with the legislation on public debt, including government securities purchased by non-residents – calculated at market value. The value of government securities purchased by non-residents is estimated as a difference between the total value of issues by general government and the total value of holdings of government securities by resident institutional sector reported by the main financial intermediaries on their behalf and on behalf of their clients for which they render custody services, according to NBR Regulation No. 4/2014, as subsequently amended and supplemented.
- External publicly guaranteed debt includes external loans guaranteed by the Ministry of Finance and local governments in compliance with the legislation on public debt.
- Long-term external debt service ratio is calculated as a ratio of long-term external debt service to exports of goods and services.
- Import cover is calculated as a ratio of international reserves (foreign exchange + gold) at the end of period to average monthly imports of goods and services for the period under review.
- Short-term external debt by remaining maturity refers to the short-term external debt outstanding at the end of period plus the payments related to long-term external debt due in the following 12 months.
The next monthly press release on the “Balance of payments and external debt” will be issued on 14 February 2022.