Balance of payments and external debt – October 2023
14.12.2023
In January - October 2023p, the balance-of-payments current account posted a deficit of EUR 18,340 million, compared with EUR 22,971 million in the same year-ago period. The breakdown shows that the deficit on trade in goods declined by EUR 3,476 million, the surplus on services expanded by EUR 1,160 million, the primary income deficit decreased by EUR 61 million, while the secondary income surplus went down by EUR 66 million.
Balance of payments current account (EUR million)
| |
January - October 2022 |
January - October 2023p |
| CREDIT
| DEBIT
| BALANCE
| CREDIT
| DEBIT
| BALANCE |
| CURRENT ACCOUNT (A+B+C)
| 113,506
| 136,477
| -22,971
| 119,179
| 137,519
| -18,340 |
| A. Goods and services
| 101,698
| 117,976
| -16,278
| 106,468
| 118,110
| -11,642 |
| a. Goods
| 71,843
| 98,503
| -26,660
| 73,116
| 96,300
| -23,184 |
| b. Services
| 29,855
| 19,473
| 10,382
| 33,352
| 21,810
| 11,542 |
| - manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others
| 2,495
| 134
| 2,361
| 2,752
| 121
| 2,631 |
| - transport
| 8,389
| 3,812
| 4,577
| 8,921
| 3,813
| 5,108 |
| - tourism-travel
| 3,557
| 6,095
| -2,538
| 4,079
| 7,018
| -2,939 |
| - telecommunications, computer, and information services
| 7,508
| 2,990
| 4,518
| 8,357
| 3,413
| 4,944 |
| - other
| 7,906
| 6,442
| 1,464
| 9,243
| 7,445
| 1,798 |
| B. Primary income
| 6,215
| 14,001
| -7,786
| 6,942
| 14,667
| -7,725 |
| C. Secondary income
| 5,593
| 4,500
| 1,093
| 5,769
| 4,742
| 1,027 |
p - provisional data
Non-residents’ direct investmente in Romania totalled EUR 6,148 million (compared with EUR 9,529 million in January – October 2022), of which equity (including the estimated net reinvestment of earnings) and intercompany lending recorded net values of EUR 6,078 million and EUR 70 million, respectively.
In January - October 2023, total external debt increased by EUR 18,548 million, of which:
- long-term external debt at end-October 2023 ran at EUR 115,627 million (71.2 percent of total external debt), up 17.2 percent against end-2022;
- short-term external debt at end-October 2023 amounted to EUR 46,807 million (28.8 percent of total external debt), up 3.4 percent from end-2022.
Romania’s external debt and external debt service
| |
External debt |
External debt service, 10M 2023p |
| End-2022 |
End-October 2023p |
| 1. General government
| 57,845
| 71,999
| 6,829 |
| Currency and deposits
| 470
| 692
| 1,974 |
| Debt securities*
| 42,941
| 56,920
| 3,197 |
| Loans
| 14,163
| 14,172
| 1,365 |
| Trade credit and advances
| 267
| 211
| 293 |
| Other accounts payable
| 4
| 4
| 0 |
| 2. Central Bank
| 3,404
| 3,356
| 99 |
| Currency and deposits
| 1
| 1
| 13 |
| Debt securities
| 0
| 0
| 0 |
| Loans
| 0
| 0
| 0 |
| Allocation of SDRs
| 3,403
| 3,355
| 86 |
| Other accounts payable
| 0
| 0
| 0 |
| 3. Deposit taking corporations except the central bank
| 10,973
| 12,238
| 10,744 |
| Currency and deposits
| 8,880
| 8,572
| 8,052 |
| Debt securities
| 1,961
| 3,568
| 2,435 |
| Loans
| 0
| 0
| 0 |
| Other accounts payable
| 132
| 98
| 257 |
| 4. Other sectors
| 27,898
| 30,030
| 23,107 |
| Currency and deposits
| 0
| 0
| 0 |
| Debt securities
| 800
| 816
| 1,862 |
| Loans
| 12,813
| 13,384
| 9,803 |
| Trade credit and advances
| 14,022
| 15,547
| 11,160 |
| Other accounts payable
| 263
| 283
| 282 |
| I. EXTERNAL DEBT (1+2+3+4)**
| 100,120
| 117,623
| 40,779 |
| II. DIRECT INVESTMENT: INTERCOMPANY LENDING
| 43,766
| 44,811
| 28,840 |
TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT (I+II)
of which:
| 143,886
| 162,434
| 69,619 |
| Short term
| 45,248
| 46,807
| 50,405 |
| Long term
| 98,638
| 115,627
| 19,214 |
p - provisional data
*The developments in the stock of debt securities issued by the general government were ascribed to the influence of higher prices of these instruments worth EUR 1.7 billion.
**except debt instruments related to direct investment
Long-term external debt service ratio stood at 18 percent in January - October 2023 against 17.9 percent in 2022. At end-October 2023, goods and services import cover ran at 5.5 months, as compared to 4.4 months at end-2022.
At end-October 2023, the ratio of the National Bank of Romania’s foreign exchange reserves to short-term external debt by remaining maturity came in at 99.1 percent, as against 82.4 percent at end-2022.
Methodological Notes
- Data are updated on a monthly basis. Data for the current period together with the revised data for the base period are available under Data sets; historical monthly and quarterly data going back to 2005 are available in the Interactive database.
- The international methodological standard on balance of payments compilation is ensured by the IMF’s sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The BPM6 methodology has been transposed into the EU legislation based on Commission Regulation (EU) No 555/2012 amending Regulation (EC) No 184/2005 of the European Parliament and of the Council on Community statistics concerning balance of payments, international trade in services and foreign direct investment, as regards the update of data requirements and definitions.
- In order to analyse current account data, the following aspects should be considered:
- 3.1. Goods (on a BOP basis): Source: National Institute of Statistics – International Trade of Goods. Imports FOB are calculated by the NBR based on the CIF/FOB conversion factor set by the NIS. The balance of payments principle consists in entering goods based on the “change in economic ownership” criterion (goods acquired by residents are included, irrespective of whether the goods cross the country border or not), while in international trade statistics goods are recorded based on the “cross-border” criterion (goods are recorded when crossing the border, irrespective of whether they belong to residents or not). In order to ensure compliance with the “change in economic ownership” criterion, the NIS data are adjusted by the NBR, therefore the values of exports and imports of goods in the BOP statistics are different from those in the statistics on the international trade of goods;
- 3.2. Services: Source: Quarterly Survey on International Trade in Services;
- 3.3. Primary income: includes compensation of employees, investment income (direct investment, portfolio investment, other investment) and other primary income (taxes, subsidies);
- 3.4. Secondary income: includes current private transfers and transfers of the general government.
- Foreign direct investment: The permanent debt between affiliated financial intermediaries (banks, NBFIs) is not treated as direct investment, but recorded under financial account/other investment.
- The statistical standards for the external debt breakdown by institutional sector are provided by the IMF’s manuals External Debt Statistics Guide for Compilers and Users (2014), Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, 6th edition (BPM6) and System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA).
- Long-term external debt service ratio is calculated as a ratio of long-term external debt service to exports of goods and services.
- Import cover is calculated as a ratio of international reserves (foreign exchange + gold) at the end of period to average monthly imports of goods and services for the period under review.
- Short-term external debt by remaining maturity refers to the short-term external debt outstanding at the end of period plus the payments related to long-term external debt due in the following 12 months.
The next monthly press release on the “Balance of payments and external debt” will be issued on 12 January 2024.